Aviation in a carbon-constrained world: 2050 scenarios for long-haul tourism
Tue 16 Apr 2013 - Tourism and its 'midwife', aviation, are exposed to various global uncertainties. The basic dilemma is that unconstrained growth in aviation emissions will not be compatible with 2050 climate stabilisation goals, and that the stringency and timing of public policy interventions to control aviation emissions could have far-reaching consequences - either on the market for future growth or the natural ecosystem on which tourism depends. With a 2050 horizon, Shaun Vorster considers the impact of the evolving global climate change regime on long-haul tourism (LHT) in a scenario-building exercise informed by the principal driving forces of carbon constraints and the long-term decarbonisation of aviation. He identifies three possible outcomes over the next 40 years, from an optimistic 'green lantern' scenario to a devastating 'grim reaper' worst case. Read more ...
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